Yesterday we alluded to the fact that a ‘break might stick’ and ‘Froome in yellow?’ We got the first one wrong but even we didn’t realise how spectacularly right we’d be on the second one finishing into Ax3 Domaines.
‘Boom! Froome blows the race to pieces!’ was how ASO saw it.
BMC were more circumspect; ‘Difficult Day’ their press release said.
Long time Tour follower, Dave Chapman saw it less dramatically but more pragmatically; ‘the race is finished!’
It’s hard to argue with him.
In my Tour preview for a ‘well known North American website,’ I said of the man who’s worked his way up through the ranks from a ‘number maker-up’ at Barloworld to leader of the world’s most effective stage race team.
Chris Frome’s (Sky & GB) progress this season has the same air of inevitability about it that Bradley Wiggins (whatever happened to him?) had last season.
Oman, the Criterium International, Romandie and the Dauphine all fell to the slim man from Nairobi – with just that pesky Nibali fellow preventing a full house by snaffling Tirreno.
Damned Italians, attacking in the rain on descents…
Froome is the opposite of Wiggins; quiet, not requiring the centre of attention and not given to collecting scooters and guitars.
He can climb, time trial, he’s cool under fire and absolutely desperate to win le Tour – he also has a great team around him.
Who can beat him?
In my preview I continued that maybe Contador could – perhaps he still can?
But what Sky did yesterday means that the process which usually begins with around one week to go has already started – namely, racing for second and third spots on the podium.
With being in the Western Isles on holiday I haven’t seen much of the Tour live on TV – but did catch an interview with Froome the other day.
Two things struck me; he was relieved to have survived the inevitable mad first week and was visibly excited about the prospect of the race entering the mountains.
A feeling not shared by many, I’m thinking.
And going back to my predictions, my choice for third spot is already dead in the water; Tejay van Garderen, in the BMC press release had this to say:
“The heat really started getting to me, which is strange because I’d done a lot to prepare for the heat with the sauna and I’ve had good rides in California and San Luis, which were all really hot,” van Garderen said.
“So I didn’t think that was going to be an issue. But for some reason, today, it really seemed to affect me.”
The tall American with the Dutch father rode very well in the races he mentioned above but ‘dipped’ in the Dauphine.
I’d imagined that this was due to his not wishing to go too ‘deep’ prior to the Tour – but what it looks like is that peaked for California.
He’s now more than 12 minutes down and I have as much chance of making the podium as he does.
It’s wrong to right off a man of Contador’s stature or to underestimate a team with the tactical wisdom and strength in depth of Movistar but they’ll have to re-jig the tactics.
‘Mano a mano’ with Froome and Porte in the mountains isn’t the answer – if you’re on the edge of going ‘rouge’ as Sky tap out their deadly wattage-driven rhythms then you can’t even think of attacking.
But what about the time trials to claw back time on Froome?
Forget it – he’s an Olympic time trial medallist and it’ll be a shock if he doesn’t win both of the chronos.
The only way to hurt Squadra Murdoch is to do what Contador did to beat Rodriguez in the Vuelta, last autumn – go for the ‘long game’ in the more technical transition stages and put pressure on from way out.
This point won’t have been lost to Contador and master tactician Riis or Valverde and the ‘Blue Machine’ management.
If I was with Saxo or Movistar management I’d be suggesting a chat over a coffee with the other team – better for the sport a Spaniard winning than an English Kenyan, surely?
Today looks savage – Col de Portet d’Aspet 2nd cat; Col de Mente 1st cat; Col de Peyresourde 1st cat; Col de Val Louron-azet 1st cat and La Hourquette d’Ancizan 1st cat.
Four first category and one second category climbs – a tough day in those Pyrenees with the only saving grace a 20 mile downhill run to the finish.
It’s a classic day for a breakaway – or maybe one of the embarrassed ‘Bigs’ from yesterday will decide to try and restore honour?
Or maybe Sky will tap out the deadly rhythm on every climb and it’ll become the same boring procession as last year – let’s hope not.
Ciao, ciao.
Results - Le Tour de France 2013 – Stage 8: Castres > Ax 3 Domaines
Stage Result
2 Richie Porte (Aus) Sky Procycling 0:00:51
3 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Movistar Team 0:01:08
4 Bauke Mollema (Ned) Belkin Pro Cycling Team 0:01:10
5 Laurens Ten Dam (Ned) Belkin Pro Cycling Team 0:01:16
6 Mikel Nieve Ituralde (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 0:01:34
7 Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Team Saxo-Tinkoff 0:01:45
8 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Team Saxo-Tinkoff
9 Nairo Alexander Quintana Rojas (Col) Movistar Team
10 Igor Anton Hernandez (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi
11 Joaquim Rodriguez Oliver (Spa) Katusha 0:02:06
12 Rui Alberto Faria Da Costa (Por) Movistar Team 0:02:28
13 Jean-Christophe Peraud (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale
14 Romain Bardet (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale 0:02:34
15 Daniel Martin (Irl) Garmin-Sharp
16 Andrew Talansky (USA) Garmin-Sharp
17 Jakob Fuglsang (Den) Astana Pro Team
18 Michael Rogers (Aus) Team Saxo-Tinkoff
19 Haimar Zubeldia Agirre (Spa) RadioShack Leopard 0:03:04
20 Michal Kwiatkowski (Pol) Omega Pharma-Quick Step 0:03:27
21 Andy Schleck (Lux) RadioShack Leopard 0:03:34
22 Pierre Rolland (Fra) Team Europcar 0:03:47
23 Nicolas Roche (Irl) Team Saxo-Tinkoff 0:04:04
24 John Gadret (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale 0:04:08
25 Daniel Moreno Fernandez (Spa) Katusha 0:04:11
26 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team 0:04:13
27 Jose Rodolfo Serpa Perez (Col) Lampre-Merida 0:04:54
28 Andreas Klöden (Ger) RadioShack Leopard 0:05:00
29 Jesus Hernandez Blazquez (Spa) Team Saxo-Tinkoff
30 Thibaut Pinot (Fra) FDJ.fr 0:06:00
31 Peter Velits (Svk) Omega Pharma-Quick Step 0:06:30
32 Davide Malacarne (Ita) Team Europcar
33 Hubert Dupont (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale
34 Maxime Monfort (Bel) RadioShack Leopard 0:07:29
35 Daryl Impey (RSA) Orica-GreenEdge 0:07:50
36 Sylvain Chavanel (Fra) Omega Pharma-Quick Step
37 Robert Gesink (Ned) Belkin Pro Cycling Team
38 Jan Bakelants (Bel) RadioShack Leopard
39 Ryder Hesjedal (Can) Garmin-Sharp 0:08:15
40 Eduard Vorganov (Rus) Katusha
41 Andrey Amador Bakkazakova (CRc) Movistar Team 0:08:32
42 Maxime Mederel (Fra) Sojasun
43 Arnold Jeannesson (Fra) FDJ.fr
44 Mikel Astarloza Chaurreau (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi
45 Przemyslaw Niemiec (Pol) Lampre-Merida 0:08:57
46 Daniel Navarro Garcia (Spa) Cofidis, Solutions Credits 0:09:13
47 Ruben Plaza Molina (Spa) Movistar Team
48 Wouter Poels (Ned) Vacansoleil-DCM Pro Cycling Team 0:09:15
49 Rein Taaramae (Est) Cofidis, Solutions Credits 0:09:20
50 Alexandre Geniez (Fra) FDJ.fr 0:09:31
51 Luis Angel Mate Mardones (Spa) Cofidis, Solutions Credits 0:09:54
52 Laurent Didier (Lux) RadioShack Leopard 0:11:05
53 Peter Kennaugh (GBr) Sky Procycling 0:11:09
54 Alexis Vuillermoz (Fra) Sojasun 0:12:12
55 Steve Morabito (Swi) BMC Racing Team
56 Tejay van Garderen (USA) BMC Racing Team 0:12:15
57 Christophe Riblon (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale 0:14:19
58 Amaël Moinard (Fra) BMC Racing Team 0:14:27
59 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre-Merida
60 Vasil Kiryienka (Blr) Sky Procycling 0:15:35
61 Bram Tankink (Ned) Belkin Pro Cycling Team 0:17:47
62 Thomas Danielson (USA) Garmin-Sharp
63 Tony Gallopin (Fra) RadioShack Leopard
64 Sergey Lagutin (Uzb) Vacansoleil-DCM Pro Cycling Team
65 Johnny Hoogerland (Ned) Vacansoleil-DCM Pro Cycling Team
66 Thomas De Gendt (Bel) Vacansoleil-DCM Pro Cycling Team
67 Jerome Coppel (Fra) Cofidis, Solutions Credits
68 Brent Bookwalter (USA) BMC Racing Team
69 Julien El Fares (Fra) Sojasun
70 Arthur Vichot (Fra) FDJ.fr 0:18:37
71 Bart De Clercq (Bel) Lotto Belisol
72 Tom Dumoulin (Ned) Team Argos-Shimano
73 Simon Geschke (Ger) Team Argos-Shimano
74 Cyril Gautier (Fra) Team Europcar 0:20:23
75 Thomas Voeckler (Fra) Team Europcar 0:21:38
76 Jonathan Castroviejo Nicolas (Spa) Movistar Team 0:21:46
77 Manuele Mori (Ita) Lampre-Merida 0:22:16
78 Alberto Losada Alguacil (Spa) Katusha
79 Yury Trofimov (Rus) Katusha
80 Jose Joaquin Rojas Gil (Spa) Movistar Team 0:23:12
81 David Lopez Garcia (Spa) Sky Procycling
82 Jens Voigt (Ger) RadioShack Leopard
83 Marcus Burghardt (Ger) BMC Racing Team
84 Markel Irizar Aranburu (Spa) RadioShack Leopard
85 David Millar (GBr) Garmin-Sharp
86 Guillaume Levarlet (Fra) Cofidis, Solutions Credits
87 Gatis Smukulis (Lat) Katusha
88 Lars Petter Nordhaug (Nor) Belkin Pro Cycling Team
89 Tony Martin (Ger) Omega Pharma-Quick Step
90 Christophe Le Mevel (Fra) Cofidis, Solutions Credits
91 Francesco Gavazzi (Ita) Astana Pro Team
92 Kanstantsin Siutsou (Blr) Sky Procycling 0:24:24
93 Sergio Miguel Moreira Paulinho (Por) Team Saxo-Tinkoff 0:25:39
94 José Ivan Gutierrez Palacios (Spa) Movistar Team 0:29:02
95 Juan Jose Oroz Ugalde (Spa) Euskaltel-E